Roubini sticks to 2013 perfect storm prediction

NEW YORK | Wed Jul 18, 2012 10:21am EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Economist Nouriel Roubini is standing by his prediction for a global "perfect storm" next year as economies the world over slow down or shudder to a complete halt, geopolitical risk grows and the euro zone's debt crisis accelerates.

Roubini, the New York University professor dubbed "Dr Doom" for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, highlighted five factors that could derail the global economy.

Those factors are a worsening of the debt crisis in Europe; tax increases and spending cuts in United Sates that may push the world's biggest economy into recession; a hard landing for China's economy; further slowing in emerging markets; and a military confrontation with Iran.

"Next year is the time when the can becomes too big to kick it down (the road)...then we have a global perfect storm," Roubini said in a television interview with Reuters.

Roubini's gloomy 2013 outlook isn't new, but it's getting more purchase as slowing economies and Europe's debt crisis drive turbulence in financial markets.

After what he expects will be a flat year for U.S. stocks in 2012, Roubini said the equity market could face a sharp correction next year, with little the Federal Reserve can do to stop it.

"There might be a weak rally because people are being cheered by more quantitative easing by (Chairman Ben) Bernanke and the Fed, but if the economy is weakening, that is going to put downward pressure on earnings growth," said Roubini.

Roubini said the Federal Reserve may be pushed toward unconventional policy options as the simulative effect of successive waves of quantitative easing - effectively printing money to buy government bonds - diminishes over time.

Unconventional policy could include "targeting the 10-year Treasury at 1 percent, doing credit easing rather than quantitative easing, targeting nominal GDP, price-level targeting and lots of stuff that is more esoteric," said Roubini. "Eventually if everything goes wrong, they can even buy equities."

(Editing by Ciro Scotti)

Authors: TSX Today

What is S&P/TSX Composite Index?

S&P/TSX Composite Index

The TSX stock exchange defines an index as a statistical measure of the state of the stock market, based on the performance of certain stocks. The performance of the index is typically viewed as a broad indicator of the direction of the economy. Originally known as the TSE 300 the composite index was created in 1977, with a base level of 1000 as of 1975. Through the years the index consisted of a sample of 300 companies, though the companies that comprised the index varied from year to year. Stocks were dropped when they no longer met exchange requirements for size and liquidity.

Effective May 1st, 2002 the index has been managed by Standard & Poor's Corp. of New York. The name was changed from the TSE 300 to the S&P/TSX Composite Index. Along with the S&P branding came new rules. Tougher criteria for meeting size and liquidity standards were imposed and there is now no fixed number of companies in the index. Since May 2002 the number of companies has dropped from 300 to 212 as of November of 2003.

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